‘There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough,’ says Valery Zaluzhny.
Russia’s war with Ukraine has become totally bogged down in the trenches, according to Ukraine’s top general.
And the prospect of a long war gives Vladimir Putin and Russia an advantage, Ukraine’s Army Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny said in a sobering interview with the Economist published Wednesday night.
In the five months since Ukraine launched an eagerly awaited counteroffensive, its troops have advanced only 17 kilometers through heavily fortified and mined Russian defense lines.
The counteroffensive has already disappointed many Ukrainian partners, some of whom are now demanding an end to military aid with the war deadlocked. However, the West’s cautious provision of weapons to Ukraine has allowed the Russians to mobilize thousands and fortify positions in occupied Ukraine, according to Zaluzhny.
Whilst the arrival of F16 and Grippen will help, it isn’t going to be some magic bullet wonder system that will win the war for Ukraine.
They have been rocking HIMARS for about a year at this point, Lepoards, Challenger2, Bradley, Patriot, Gepard, Excalibur etc from their allies. Not to mention the home grown/home developed systems that have achieved parity and even arguably surpassed the Russian Naval impact from the Black Sea. And yet they’re still at the point where they’re pretty much at an attritional grind. Russia has done well to adapt to much of these systems and tactics, using the last winter as an example of where they shifted focus from trying to gain ground to simply holding what they have (a-la Germany following the strategic failure of Op Michael).
I will steadfastly support Ukraine and strongly believe that Russia absolutely needs to be stopped and shown that their Imperial actions cannot be allowed. But we also need to be realistic and realise this isn’t as easy as we want it to be. That Russia aren’t the complete drooling fools that we want to believe them to be.