Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine wants to work with countries like China with “influence on Russia” as his country faces a renewed Moscow offensive, urging Beijing to attend peace talks next month.
Basically the entirety of the western world is refusing to interact with Russia at this point. They’ve mostly turned into a pariah state.
China very much wants to continue doing business with the west, because their economy will implode if that income source dries up - I don’t think many people really understand how much money China’s put into their Belt and Road initiative, strategic purchase of overseas ports and infrastructure, and military industrial crash development programs. Absent other significant geopolitical disruptions, it was a somewhat risky — though I would also say quite strategically shrewd — set of policies: they were laying out tons of cash on stuff that would take decades to pan out, but when they did pan out, it would have put the PRC overall WAY closer to parity with the US in terms of geopolitical and military clout.
But then Putin decided he wanted to go all in… and now Xi is finding himself forced to pick a side. He’s delaying and hemming and hawing as long as he can, but sooner or later, his hand will be forced, and he will have to choose between an (unreliable) ally (Putin) and the economy of the PRC itself.
I know it sounds bold to make such a prediction, but I do not see any possibility that Xi (or anyone in Beijing’s leadership circle) would choose helping Russia over helping China itself. It simply won’t happen. When the chips are all well and truly down, China is going to fold and leave Russia flapping in the wind. To do otherwise would be tantamount to economic suicide for China.
It’s anyone’s guess what Russia will do at that point. But maybe NCD will end up unintentionally predicting the future again, so watch that space I guess?
Edit: Additionally, remember that China’s currently in the throes of a domestic real estate and credit crisis. It’s not being reported on too much because they’re doing their best to keep a lid on things, but if you look around for some stories and data, it’s not looking good. Also, a LOT of countries and companies are beginning to onshore production that they had previously outsourced to China, for various reasons. That context only increases the pressure on Xi to prioritize China’s economic strength above all else.
Well said. One thing I’d add is that it wasn’t only Putin going all in, but Xi’s own strategic impatience. China needed at least another generation to grow into its strengths as a world power, but Xi had, for various reasons, convinced himself that he, not his successors, would be the one to see it all through. By finishing the job Mao had started, Xi would be the one lauded by history as the one inheriting Mao’s mantle.
Xi likes to wax poetic about geostrategic “changes not seen in a century”. Ironically, his own ego and hamfistedness has given the West a once in a century opportunity to kneecap China and prevent it from consolidating into a true world power.
Honestly, if Xi would have just chilled his tits and taken a less confrontational approach vis a vis Taiwan and their idiotic and entirely irrelevant “nine-dash line” (I honestly view it with the same level of seriousness as that one time Trump drew on the hurricane forecast map with a sharpie and was like “HURRICANE GO HERE BECAUSE I BIG STRONG PRESIDENT”), they’d probably be in a far better position geopolitically.
The west was entirely willing to work in good faith with them, but Xi is stuck in a frustratingly Kissinger-esque zero-sum “great power” worldview, and doesn’t want to be partners with any other nation or regional alliance that they aren’t ultimately in control of. The consequences of that unnecessarily confrontational strategy are blatantly obvious at this point.
Basically the entirety of the western world is refusing to interact with Russia at this point. They’ve mostly turned into a pariah state.
China very much wants to continue doing business with the west, because their economy will implode if that income source dries up - I don’t think many people really understand how much money China’s put into their Belt and Road initiative, strategic purchase of overseas ports and infrastructure, and military industrial crash development programs. Absent other significant geopolitical disruptions, it was a somewhat risky — though I would also say quite strategically shrewd — set of policies: they were laying out tons of cash on stuff that would take decades to pan out, but when they did pan out, it would have put the PRC overall WAY closer to parity with the US in terms of geopolitical and military clout.
But then Putin decided he wanted to go all in… and now Xi is finding himself forced to pick a side. He’s delaying and hemming and hawing as long as he can, but sooner or later, his hand will be forced, and he will have to choose between an (unreliable) ally (Putin) and the economy of the PRC itself.
I know it sounds bold to make such a prediction, but I do not see any possibility that Xi (or anyone in Beijing’s leadership circle) would choose helping Russia over helping China itself. It simply won’t happen. When the chips are all well and truly down, China is going to fold and leave Russia flapping in the wind. To do otherwise would be tantamount to economic suicide for China.
It’s anyone’s guess what Russia will do at that point. But maybe NCD will end up unintentionally predicting the future again, so watch that space I guess?
Edit: Additionally, remember that China’s currently in the throes of a domestic real estate and credit crisis. It’s not being reported on too much because they’re doing their best to keep a lid on things, but if you look around for some stories and data, it’s not looking good. Also, a LOT of countries and companies are beginning to onshore production that they had previously outsourced to China, for various reasons. That context only increases the pressure on Xi to prioritize China’s economic strength above all else.
Well said. One thing I’d add is that it wasn’t only Putin going all in, but Xi’s own strategic impatience. China needed at least another generation to grow into its strengths as a world power, but Xi had, for various reasons, convinced himself that he, not his successors, would be the one to see it all through. By finishing the job Mao had started, Xi would be the one lauded by history as the one inheriting Mao’s mantle.
Xi likes to wax poetic about geostrategic “changes not seen in a century”. Ironically, his own ego and hamfistedness has given the West a once in a century opportunity to kneecap China and prevent it from consolidating into a true world power.
Honestly, if Xi would have just chilled his tits and taken a less confrontational approach vis a vis Taiwan and their idiotic and entirely irrelevant “nine-dash line” (I honestly view it with the same level of seriousness as that one time Trump drew on the hurricane forecast map with a sharpie and was like “HURRICANE GO HERE BECAUSE I BIG STRONG PRESIDENT”), they’d probably be in a far better position geopolitically.
The west was entirely willing to work in good faith with them, but Xi is stuck in a frustratingly Kissinger-esque zero-sum “great power” worldview, and doesn’t want to be partners with any other nation or regional alliance that they aren’t ultimately in control of. The consequences of that unnecessarily confrontational strategy are blatantly obvious at this point.