“In any event, the impact on oil prices will remain the key channel of transmission to the global economy,” Reilly added, noting Iran accounts for about 4% of global oil output. “An important consideration will be whether Saudi Arabia increases production if Iranian supplies were disrupted.”

I was just commenting on an article here the other day about how Saudi Arabia had just increased their production.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-arabia-abandon-100-crude-target-take-back-market-share-ft-reports-2024-09-26/

Saudi Arabia to drop $100 crude target to win back market share, FT reports