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Joined 3 年前
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Cake day: 2023年7月2日

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  • The US is fucked on AI leadership, because we’re fucked on manufacturing leadership. It’s a fluke of geology we have control of pure enough silicon right now, and that’s not likely to be a barrier for long. China is about to eat our lunch in every area of research now that the US has killed funding and chased away the best students. What happened with manufacturing, is about to happen with tech and academia. Europe, India, Japan and Australia will siphon off a little bit, but China is going to be dominant for the next 20 to 50 years most likely. And probably won’t be overtaken by the US again.

    It won’t be next week, but over the next decade China is very much going to be taking the global stage. The US has handed them economic dominance on a silver platter.














  • France and UK combined have a far superior military with greater capability, plus nuclear options. Poland by itself is technically only in a superior defensive position, and doesn’t have the long range strike capabilities of France or UK.

    That said, what would stop Polish forces from advancing are Russian military lines and deep defenses that have so far proven to be incredibly fragile behind the front lines. It’s assumed that Russia could pull in a lot more troops and equipment if needed, but reality makes that picture look a lot more shaky. Everyone thinks Russia has deep layers of defense and a million troops to move around as needed. But at the same time, their logistical failures have continued to be so immense that a coordinated attack beyond what they’re handling in Ukraine would likely strain their operations beyond usefulness.