I don’t expect a conservative backlash, on the contrary Francis’s Pontificate has weakened the conservative wing considerably. Given that 80% of the voting cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis, I would expect them to elect a successor that continues in the same direction, perhaps even a more radical one.

During his pontificate Francis also made a lot of efforts to bring in new groups into the corridors of power. Not only by his appointment of cardinals, but also e.g. by reforming the Curia with Praedicate evangelium.

Just to be clear, the story about the couch does not appear to be true: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/jd-vance-couch-cushions/

The graphical abstract is even better than the title: