Actually, they are hiding the full CoT sequence outside of the demos.

What you are seeing there is a summary, but because the actual process is hidden it’s not possible to see what actually transpired.

People are very not happy about this aspect of the situation.

It also means that model context (which in research has been shown to be much more influential than previously thought) is now in part hidden with exclusive access and control by OAI.

There’s a lot of things to be focused on in that image, and “hur dur the stochastic model can’t count letters in this cherry picked example” is the least among them.

Yep:

https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/

First interactive section. Make sure to click “show chain of thought.”

The cipher one is particularly interesting, as it’s intentionally difficult for the model.

The tokenizer is famously bad at two letter counts, which is why previous models can’t count the number of rs in strawberry.

So the cipher depends on two letter pairs, and you can see how it screws up the tokenization around the xx at the end of the last word, and gradually corrects course.

Will help clarify how it’s going about solving something like the example I posted earlier behind the scenes.

You should really look at the full CoT traces on the demos.

I think you think you know more than you actually know.

I’d recommend everyone saying “it can’t understand anything and can’t think” to look at this example:

https://x.com/flowersslop/status/1834349905692824017

Try to solve it after seeing only the first image before you open the second and see o1’s response.

Let me know if you got it before seeing the actual answer.

I fondly remember reading a comment in /r/conspiracy on a post claiming a geologic seismic weapon brought down the towers.

It just tore into the claims, citing all the reasons this was preposterous bordering on batshit crazy.

And then it said “and your theory doesn’t address the thermite residue” going on to reiterate their wild theory.

Was very much a “don’t name your gods” moment that summed up the sub - a lot of people in agreement that the truth was out there, but bitterly divided as to what it might actually be.

As long as they only focused on generic memes of “do your own research” and “you aren’t being told the truth” they were all on the same page. But as soon as they started naming their own truths, it was every theorist for themselves.

They got off to a great start with the PS5, but as their lead grew over their only real direct competitor, they became a good example of the problems with monopolies all over again.

This is straight up back to PS3 launch all over again, as if they learned nothing.

Right on the tail end of a horribly mismanaged PSVR 2 launch.

We still barely have any current gen only games, and a $700 price point is insane for such a small library to actually make use of it.

Meanwhile, here’s an excerpt of a response from Claude Opus on me tasking it to evaluate intertextuality between the Gospel of Matthew and Thomas from the perspective of entropy reduction with redactional efforts due to human difficulty at randomness (this doesn’t exist in scholarship outside of a single Reddit comment I made years ago in /r/AcademicBiblical lacking specific details) on page 300 of a chat about completely different topics:

Yeah, sure, humans would be so much better at this level of analysis within around 30 seconds. (It’s also worth noting that Claude 3 Opus doesn’t have the full context of the Gospel of Thomas accessible to it, so it needs to try to reason through entropic differences primarily based on records relating to intertextual overlaps that have been widely discussed in consensus literature and are thus accessible).

This is pretty much every study right now as things accelerate. Even just six months can be a dramatic difference in capabilities.

For example, Meta’s 3-405B has one of the leading situational awarenesses of current models, but isn’t present at all to the same degree in 2-70B or even 3-70B.

Lucretius in De Rerum Natura in 50 BCE seemed to have a few that were just a bit ahead of everyone else, owed to the Greek philosopher Epicurus.

Survival of the fittest (book 5):

"In the beginning, there were many freaks. Earth undertook Experiments - bizarrely put together, weird of look Hermaphrodites, partaking of both sexes, but neither; some Bereft of feet, or orphaned of their hands, and others dumb, Being devoid of mouth; and others yet, with no eyes, blind. Some had their limbs stuck to the body, tightly in a bind, And couldn’t do anything, or move, and so could not evade Harm, or forage for bare necessities. And the Earth made Other kinds of monsters too, but in vain, since with each, Nature frowned upon their growth; they were not able to reach The flowering of adulthood, nor find food on which to feed, Nor be joined in the act of Venus.

For all creatures need Many different things, we realize, to multiply And to forge out the links of generations: a supply Of food, first, and a means for the engendering seed to flow Throughout the body and out of the lax limbs; and also so The female and the male can mate, a means they can employ In order to impart and to receive their mutual joy.

Then, many kinds of creatures must have vanished with no trace Because they could not reproduce or hammer out their race. For any beast you look upon that drinks life-giving air, Has either wits, or bravery, or fleetness of foot to spare, Ensuring its survival from its genesis to now."

Trait inheritance from both parents that could skip generations (book 4):

“Sometimes children take after their grandparents instead, Or great-grandparents, bringing back the features of the dead. This is since parents carry elemental seeds inside – Many and various, mingled many ways – their bodies hide Seeds that are handed, parent to child, all down the family tree. Venus draws features from these out of her shifting lottery – Bringing back an ancestor’s look or voice or hair. Indeed These characteristics are just as much the result of certain seed As are our faces, limbs and bodies. Females can arise From the paternal seed, just as the male offspring, likewise, Can be created from the mother’s flesh. For to comprise A child requires a doubled seed – from father and from mother. And if the child resembles one more closely than the other, That parent gave the greater share – which you can plainly see Whichever gender – male or female – that the child may be.”

Objects of different weights will fall at the same rate in a vacuum (book 2):

“Whatever falls through water or thin air, the rate Of speed at which it falls must be related to its weight, Because the substance of water and the nature of thin air Do not resist all objects equally, but give way faster To heavier objects, overcome, while on the other hand Empty void cannot at any part or time withstand Any object, but it must continually heed Its nature and give way, so all things fall at equal speed, Even though of differing weights, through the still void.”

Often I see people dismiss the things the Epicureans got right with an appeal to their lack of the scientific method, which has always seemed a bit backwards to me. In hindsight, they nailed so many huge topics that didn’t end up emerging again for millennia that it was surely not mere chance, and the fact that they successfully hit so many nails on the head without the hammer we use today indicates (at least to me) that there’s value to looking closer at their methodology.

Also, ants.

Self destructive addiction even happens to corporations.

The DLC is really the right balance for FromSoft.

The zones in the base game are slightly too big.

In the DLC, it’s still open world and extremely flexible in how you explore it, but there’s less wasted space.

It’s very tightly knit and the pacing is better as a result.

It’s like Elden Ring was watching masters of their craft cut their teeth on something new, and then the DLC was them applying everything they learned in that process.

Can’t wait for their next game in that same vein (especially not held back by last gen consoles).

Your interpretation of copyright law would be helped by reading this piece from an EFF lawyer who has actually litigated copyright cases in the past:

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2023/04/how-we-think-about-copyright-and-ai-art-0

Part of the problem with this approach is that prediction engines are predicted on the idea that there’s more of a thing to predict.

So unless they really, really go out of their way with modeling the records to account for this, they’ll have a system very strongly biased towards predicting more criminal behavior for everyone fed into it.

I hate that the Smithscript weapons can’t be buffed.

Especially for the daggers.

Wanted to pew pew little bolts of lightning buffed daggers doing an additional 200+ damage per hit. 😢

I’d be very wary of extrapolating too much from this paper.

The past research along these lines found that a mix of synthetic and organic data was better than organic alone, and a caveat for all the research to date is that they are using shitty cheap models where there’s a significant performance degrading in the synthetic data as compared to SotA models, where other research has found notable improvements to smaller models from synthetic data from the SotA.

Basically this is only really saying that AI models across multiple types from a year or two ago in capabilities recursively trained with no additional organic data will collapse.

It’s not representative of real world or emerging conditions.

She doesn’t need to be inspiring. She just needs to not be half dead.

I think people are underestimating just how weak of a candidate Trump has become.

It just wasn’t really able to be capitalized on because we were doing a whole “the emperor has clothes” thing on the left so the left media couldn’t point out Trump running around naked.

He’s old and tired. And there’s now 4 months to show him as not only a fascist, but a half dead one that’s meandering and weak.

He was only able to cosplay as a strongman when his opponent was literally presenting with Parkinson’s. Against a younger person the narrative immediately becomes “old man yells at clouds” and his BS can be rebranded as ‘confused.’

I don’t know.

I really dislike Harris. She’s probably the bottom of my pick list for the nominee and a Dem President.

But it’s not like a gaping sore of a liability the way Biden was.

I’m excited the conversation can finally shift to “Trump fell asleep during his own convention? Doesn’t he seem tired in his speech?”

I think it being a woman nominee is an interesting newsworthy discussion point at a time when the other party is actively working to harm women - even if she’s the last of the many other qualified women I’d rather see in the position.

I don’t like her, I don’t like listening to her nonsensical off the cuff statements, I thought she did very poorly in the 2020 campaign, I am anxious about a law enforcement politician as President in a system with too much Presidential power over the Justice department.

But in spite of all that, I just don’t care enough to push back strongly on her.

She’s boring in the neoliberal way we’ve gotten used to, but she’s not addled and she’s not a neo-Nazi, and with an interesting VP pick she’s a ticket I could potentially even be excited about four months from now instead of watching her be put into a nursing home as the October surprise.

I’d love to see an actual competitive open convention, but barring that I’m just going to accept a turd sandwich that’s palatable, as even that seemed like a stretch a week ago, and I’ll take what I can get.

Gravity is where the whole continuous singularities are, so yeah.

The most advanced models absolutely have modeling about what’s being discussed and relationships between concepts.

Even toy models have been shown to build world models from very basic training data.

Honestly, read at least a little bit of the relevant research:

https://www.anthropic.com/news/mapping-mind-language-model